Sunday, 29 January 2012


TRADING FORECAST INFLATION OR DEFLATION I was mentioning the fact yesterday that the crowd is dazed an confused, in my opinion. I say this because you have a division of opinion, you hear the inflation/deflation argument a lot. In my opinion I think that more people are on the inflationary side. In the past when everybody moves to one side it's time to take the opposite side. In past articles I have mentioned that the market will probably go sideways for a while and then the probabilities are in the cards of collapse. I say this because of the fact that there is a division of ideas between inflation and deflation. I watched this video today and found it interesting. I thought I would share it with you. Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Harry Dent, founder of economic advisory firm HS Dent and author of "The Great Crash Ahead," Dan Alpert, managing partner of Westwood Capital LLC, Jerry Webman, chief economist and senior investment officer with Oppenheimer Funds Inc., and Jonathan Tepper, founder and chief editor of Variant Perception, talk about U.S. stocks, the U.S. and Chinese economies, Federal Reserve monetary policy and their investment strategies. They speak with Pimm Fox on Bloomberg Television's "Taking Stock." (Source: Bloomberg) When you watch the interview of Jonathan Tepper, Harry Dent, Jerry Webman and Dan Alpert you get a small picture in your mind of what people think is going to happen. I haven't heard of Dan Alpert or Jerry Webman but I read Harry Dent's work and have heard of Jonathan Tepper. I buy into Harry Dent's argument of deflation based on demographics. I don't know too much about Jonathan Tepper, what I do know about him is he is one smart cookie, I was introduced to his work through John Mauldin. In all, when you get right down to it, more and more people are buying into the inflation argument more and more every day. This leads me to believe that perhaps its the deflationary argument to look at when deciding where to put your hard earned money. I have mentioned it before, I think the stock markets worldwide are going to look like the junk bond market in the 90's, bounce around and then collapse. Another thing to keep in mind is the The Kondratieff Cycle (Elliott Wave International), I'm not going to talk about it, that's a book in it's self. But the cycle we're in fits well with what Kondratieff  (Wikipedia) wrote about, the unfortunate thing is Stalin didn't like what he had to say and executed him in 1938. Look at the K-Wave Chart to see what I mean.

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