Friday, 3 February 2012

Swing Trading Forecast For the Financial Markets

An update on the trading between now and March 15th. I have to tell you what happens between now and March 15th is anyones guess. One thing to look at is the divergence between price and volume. The volume is trending down and the price is going up. All the buzz about Facebook's IPO is another indicator of a top, not necessarily the day the IPO was a done deal but a process, the only thing about the biggest IPO indicator "top for the markets" is, everybody knows about the High Priced IPO Indicator for a top in the Market.. It wouldn't be the first time I saw the market climb for a month and a half with no volume only to fall down.
I have to admit that the price action on Tuesday was a bit of a surprise only because I knew there was going to be break out but I thought it was going to be to the down side, with a top on the 23rd. Having said that, there was an interview with David Tepper a year and a half ogo or so ( I couldn't find the video).In the interview he was asked about why he blew the competition away in the hedge fund industry after the Fed come out with QE2. His repy was that the decision was easy to go long assetts after the announcement. You have to agree with him on that, I also have to agree with Prechtor that the Fed is going to lose credibility with all the money printing and the economies are not getting better for the people. Sure the huge multi nationals are making tonnes of money, but the Fed will lose credibility when all things are said and done when ever thats going to be.
Since the Russell 2000 broke out to the upside on Tuesday I have to wait for things to unfold, the DOW is challenging it's high . The market is too risky for the short term to go long, I am waiting for a pull back to go long "maybe". and because the market went up on tuesday I have to wait on the decission to go short, so for now I am waiting to see how things play out.
The possibilities are endless with the outcomes, but the pivot points / trend changes are on or around:
March 15th, April 2nd, April 9th, April 17th, May 23rd, June 14th,
June 21st, July 17, August 13, August 31st, September 26, November 9, December 3
This site indicates dates for pivot points, break outs and break downs in price. When you know the date's of these changes and add chart patterns to the decision of
what to buy or sell, it is "almost" as good as getting tomorrows paper today. Speaking of patterns, the accending triangle we see in the markets usually ends up
to the down side, but If I see it then everybody sees it, so I would have to think the pattern won't fufill itself.
For now I am just sitting back for a bit to see how things play out.

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